Cape Hatteras National Seashore (NC)
Parks Remain Closed
Facilities at all three Outer Banks parks - Cape Hatteras NS, Wright
Brothers NM and Fort Raleigh NHS - remain closed today due to a winter
storm that dropped more than eight inches of snow on the area yesterday.
State and park roads are passable, but secondary roads have not been
plowed. Park maintenance staff will begin clearing snow and reopening
facilities today. Current plans are for all areas to reopen on Saturday,
but this is contingent on the weather. Above-freezing temperatures are
not expected until midday tomorrow. Rangers assisted state, local and
county public safety agencies and aided numerous motorists throughout
the day yesterday. Many accidents were reported, including several
rollovers, but there have been no reports of serious injuries.
[Submitted by Jeff Cob, Chief Ranger, Outer Banks Group]
Independence National Historical Park (PA)
Special Event
Famed actor Ossie Davis symbolically "tapped" the Liberty Bell in
honor of Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr., during the annual Martin Luther
King Day ceremony in the park on January 20. Also participating in the
event were governor-elect Ed Rendell, senators Arlen Specter and Rick
Santorum, California congresswoman Diane Watson (chair of the National
Council of Black Women's educational committee), and mayor John Street.
Park protection rangers coordinated security with local and state
police. No incidents were reported.
[Submitted by Phil Sheridan,
PAO]
Zion National Park (UT)
Falling Fatality
The body of D.K., 66, of Joshua Tree, California, was found
at the base of Scouts Lookout on the afternoon of Tuesday, January 21.
D.K. was apparently visiting the park alone and was a guest at Zion
Lodge. When her belongings were found in her room after her scheduled
departure time, the park was notified and efforts were begun to locate
her or her vehicle. Night patrol rangers found the latter at the Grotto
parking area; it was still there on Tuesday morning, so a search was
begun for her. A search team on West Rim trail saw some type of personal
gear at the base of Scouts Lookout. A second team was sent to that
location and found her body. Scout Lookout, about 900 feet above the
floor of Zion Canyon, is a popular viewpoint along the trail. The
fatality is being investigated by the county sheriff's office in
cooperation with the park.
[Submitted by Public Affairs]
FIRE MANAGEMENT
Fire and Aviation Management
NIFC Posts Analysis of 2003 Fire Season
Summary
Much of the Interior West and portions of the Eastern Area will see an above-normal fire season for the following reasons:
- Long-term drought persists and will intensify over much of the interior West area.
- Mountain snowpack and water year precipitation remains below average for most of the western states with the exception of northern/central California and pockets elsewhere.
- The outlook for February through April calls for above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation over the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies, portions of the Great Lakes and the Ohio River Valley.
Weather
It has been much drier than normal this winter from the east slopes of the Cascades to the Great Lakes and wetter than normal over northern/central California, the Southeast and East Coast states. Drought conditions have persisted over much of the West for the last four years.
El Niño, characterized by warmer-than-usual waters in the tropical Pacific, is the main weather factor driving circulation patterns this winter. It is important to keep in mind that El Niño typically brings dry winter/springs to the northern states and wet weather from California to Florida. Also, long-range forecast are more accurate during El Niño events. This El Niño is of moderate strength and should persist through the spring. The winter and spring outlooks reflect these typical El Niño patterns.
Outlook
Southern Area: Heavy precipitation during October, November and early December continued to reduce and eliminate long-standing moisture deficits across the eastern seaboard (see the 3-month and 48-month Standardized Precipitation Images above). The portions of South Carolina and Georgia with residual long-term deficits will continue to improve through this spring. While drought has been mitigated in these areas, the amount and frequency of rain events in the spring play a large role in determining what kind of fire season the eastern states will experience. It appears that Texas, portions of the southern tier, Florida and the eastern seaboard have the lowest probability of a significant fire season this spring and summer. Other states in this area are likely to see normal fire activity this season with a very good likelihood of successful prescribed fire application over the next several months.
Eastern Area: Many of the storm systems responsible for the heavy rain and snow across the east by-passed the Great Lakes, Upper Mississippi and Ohio Valley areas. As a result, low soil moisture and river levels exist across most of the Lower Peninsula of Michigan, northern Illinois, northern Indiana and northwestern Ohio. Drought is expected to gradually expand into extreme southern Wisconsin, central Indiana, central to northeastern Ohio, and northwestern Pennsylvania. Currently, portions of the Lake States remain without snow cover, meaning that grass fuels have remained erect and dry. Much of the early snow along Lake Superior has melted, and winter precipitation across the Lake States continues at below normal levels. With these conditions, we are expecting an early start to the fire season in Michigan, progressing from the southern part of the state in late February to the Lake Superior Watershed in early April. Fire season initiation could be as much as 2 to 3 weeks ahead of normal in this and other Lake State areas.
Central States: During a moderate El Niño, wetter than normal conditions typically occur across much of Nebraska, eastern Colorado, Kansas and portions of North and South Dakota. As a result, some improvement is expected in those areas (see Drought Monitor and Outlook images below). Further northwest however, conditions are typically dry and mild. As a result, drought intensification and expansion is expected across extreme western North Dakota.
In the West: Nevada, Utah and Colorado, should receive enough precipitation this winter to make some improvement, although drought conditions will still exist. Drier than normal conditions are expected across most of Idaho, Montana and western Wyoming. In fact, snowpack in most of these areas is currently at 60-80% of normal (see the Mountain Snowpack image below). This trend is forecasted to continue and will intensify the drought conditions that exist in those areas. Drought conditions go back five years or more in southwest Montana. The period of 1998-2002 is the driest five-year period on record. This area has essentially missed over a full year's worth of normal precipitation during this period. With seasonal precipitation running below normal over the majority of the west, spring rains will be a crucial factor determining fire potential this summer. If spring rains are plentiful, the fire season should trend towards normal, however if the spring is dry, fire season will initiate early and conditions are likely to worsen later in the summer.
Southwest Area: Severe to extreme drought persists over Arizona while New Mexico drought conditions
remain abnormally dry to moderate. Well over 600,000 forested acres in Arizona are infested with bark beetles, increasing the potential for timber destruction from wildfires. Across Arizona, New Mexico and western Texas, wetter than normal precipitation is forecasted for the remainder of the winter and spring, which should result in widespread drought improvement. Overall, if the long-term precipitation forecast is correct, fire season is projected to start later, be shorter and less severe than 2002. More grass and brush fires are anticipated this season, but there is potential for fire danger to spike to near record levels during the peak dry season due to the impacts of long-term drought.
Alaska: Warmer than normal temperatures are forecast for most of Alaska this winter and spring. Southern Alaska is expected to have above normal precipitation through the remainder of the winter, which may not increase snowpack in south central Alaska due to the warmer temperatures forecasted. These mild conditions should result in a quicker thaw and transition into green-up which could result in a shortened fire season. However, a cool spell occurring after the snowpack melts could significantly retard green-up. Ultimately, shorter-term weather patterns, such as the strength and placement of the upper ridge, have a stronger influence on fire potential in Alaska.
PARKS AND PEOPLE
Petersburg National Battlefield (VA)
GS-025-5/7/9 Protection Ranger
The park has posted a vacancy announcement for a GS-025-5/7/9 protection ranger. The number is COLO-03-03 and it closes on February 6. The park is 23 miles south of Richmond. Housing may be available on a permitted basis.
[Submitted by Sue Warthan]
Submission standards for the Morning Report can be found on the left side of the front page of InsideNPS. All reports should be submitted via email to Bill Halainen at Delaware Water Gap NRA, with a copy to your regional office and a copy to Dennis Burnett in Division of Law Enforcement and Emergency Services, WASO.
Prepared by the Division of Law Enforcement and Emergency Services, WASO, with the cooperation and support of Delaware Water Gap NRA.